{"id":23902,"date":"2025-08-26T10:00:02","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T08:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/earthguardian.earth\/?p=23902"},"modified":"2025-10-15T09:33:55","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T07:33:55","slug":"time-pressure-in-the-climate-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/earthguardian.earth\/en\/time-pressure-in-the-climate-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Time Pressure\u00a0in the Climate\u00a0Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

– How\u00a0much time do\u00a0we have left?<\/h2>\n

According to\u00a0the latest scientific\u00a0findings from\u00a02025, humanity\u00a0now faces an\u00a0even more critical\u00a0time window than\u00a0predicted in\u00a02020. The remaining\u00a0CO\u2082 budget for\u00a0the 1.5\u00b0C target\u00a0is only about\u00a0130 billion tons\u00a0of CO\u2082 and, at\u00a0current emission\u00a0rates, could\u00a0be exhausted\u00a0in roughly three\u00a0years.<\/p>\n

The dramatic\u00a0worsening since\u00a02020<\/span><\/h4>\n

While the\u00a0original 2020 blog\u00a0post already\u00a0warned about\u00a0time running\u00a0out, the situation\u00a0has drastically\u00a0deteriorated.\u00a02024 was the first\u00a0year when the\u00a0global average\u00a0temperature continuously\u00a0exceeded the\u00a01.5\u00b0C threshold. <\/span>Human-induced warming\u00a0is now at 1.36\u00b0C above\u00a0pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n

Global CO\u2082 emissions\u00a0reached a new\u00a0record in 2024 with\u00a037.8 billion\u00a0tons – an increase\u00a0of 0.8 percent\u00a0compared to\u00a02023. Particularly\u00a0alarming: atmospheric\u00a0CO\u2082 concentrations\u00a0rose to 422.5\u2013424 ppm, a value 50 percent\u00a0higher than in\u00a0pre-industrial times.<\/p>\n

The shrinking\u00a0CO\u2082 budget: Even\u00a0more dramatic\u00a0than in 2020<\/span><\/h4>\n

The latest\u00a0calculations\u00a0by the “Indicators of\u00a0Global Climate\u00a0Change” are even\u00a0more alarming\u00a0than the 2020 forecasts:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    130 to 250 billion\u00a0tons of CO\u2082 remain\u00a0for the 1.5\u00b0C target\u00a0(50% likelihood)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Only 30 billion\u00a0tons for an\u00a083% probability<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    At current\u00a0emission rates\u00a0of about 40 billion\u00a0tons per year: The budget is\u00a0used up in 3 years<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    For higher warming\u00a0targets, we have\u00a0about 9 years\u00a0for 1.6 – 1.7\u00b0C and\u00a020\u201330 years for\u00a0the 2\u00b0C target.<\/p>\n

    The collapse\u00a0of natural carbon\u00a0sinks
    \n<\/b>
    \nA particularly\u00a0troubling trend\u00a0since 2020 is\u00a0the dramatic\u00a0failure of natural\u00a0carbon sinks. In 2023, forests, soils, and other\u00a0land ecosystems\u00a0absorbed only\u00a00.44 billion\u00a0tons of carbon\u00a0per year – the lowest\u00a0value since\u00a02003 and far below\u00a0the 2010 – 2022 average\u00a0of 2.04 billion\u00a0tons.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Reasons for\u00a0this collapse:<\/h4>\n
      \n
    • \n

      Extreme\u00a0drought in the\u00a0Amazon (loss of\u00a00.31 GtC)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • Record\u00a0wildfires in\u00a0Canada (0.58 GtC emissions, six\u00a0times the decade\u00a0average)<\/li>\n
    • Record\u00a0global temperatures\u00a0leading to an\u00a0additional 1.73 GtC losses<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Without these\u00a0natural \u201cbuffers,\u201d twice\u00a0as much CO\u2082 would\u00a0be in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

      The role\u00a0of companies: State-owned vs. private emitters
      \n<\/b><\/span>
      \nNew analyses\u00a0provide a clear\u00a0picture of responsibility: In 2023, state-owned companies\u00a0were responsible\u00a0for 52 percent\u00a0of global CO\u2082 emissions, while\u00a0the five largest\u00a0private companies\u00a0(ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and\u00a0BP) caused only\u00a04.9 percent.<\/span><\/p>\n

      The Top\u00a05 state-owned emitters:<\/span><\/h4>\n
        \n
      • Saudi\u00a0Aramco: 4.38% of\u00a0global CO\u2082 emissions<\/li>\n
      • Coal India: 3.68%<\/li>\n
      • CHN Energy: 3.65%<\/li>\n
      • National\u00a0Iranian Oil Co.: 2.75%<\/li>\n
      • Jinneng Group: 2.92%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Only\u00a036 companies were\u00a0responsible for\u00a0more than half\u00a0of all fossil\u00a0CO\u2082 emissions\u00a0in 2023.<\/p>\n

        Tipping points: Closer to the\u00a0brink
        \n<\/b><\/span>
        \nResearch on\u00a0climate tipping\u00a0points has changed\u00a0dramatically\u00a0since 2020. At\u00a0the current warming\u00a0level, we are\u00a0already in the\u00a0uncertainty range\u00a0for 5 tipping\u00a0points. Under\u00a0current policies, there is a\u00a062 percent probability\u00a0that at least\u00a0one tipping point\u00a0will be triggered.<\/span><\/p>\n

        The most\u00a0dangerous tipping\u00a0points include:<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n

          Collapse\u00a0of the Greenland\u00a0and West Antarctic\u00a0ice sheets<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • Breakdown\u00a0of the Atlantic\u00a0Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)<\/li>\n
        • Amazon forest\u00a0dieback<\/li>\n
        • Thawing of permafrost<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          \"Globale<\/p>\n

          Positive\u00a0tipping points: A ray of hope<\/span><\/h4>\n

          Despite the\u00a0bleak outlook, there are also\u00a0positive developments. Renewable energy\u00a0has reached a\u00a0positive tipping\u00a0point: Solar\u00a0and wind are\u00a0now the cheapest\u00a0sources of electricity\u00a0in most parts\u00a0of the world.<\/span><\/p>\n

          About 14 percent\u00a0of global primary\u00a0energy now comes\u00a0from renewables, with\u00a0an exponential\u00a0growth rate. The\u00a0share of electric\u00a0vehicles rose\u00a0from 4 percent\u00a0(2020) to 14 percent\u00a0(2022) of all\u00a0new cars.<\/p>\n

          Costa Rica: A model for\u00a0a positive Earthprint
          \n<\/b>
          \nCosta Rica\u00a0demonstrates\u00a0what a positive\u00a0Earthprint looks\u00a0like. The country\u00a0generates 98\u201399 percent\u00a0of its electricity\u00a0from renewables and\u00a0in 2017 set a\u00a0record: 300 consecutive\u00a0days with 100 percent\u00a0renewable energy<\/p>\n

          With over\u00a052 percent forest\u00a0cover (target:\u00a060 percent by\u00a02050) and the\u00a0goal of climate\u00a0neutrality by\u00a02050, Costa Rica\u00a0shows that a\u00a0positive Earthprint – binding more\u00a0CO\u2082 than is emitted – is possible.<\/p>\n

          Negative\u00a0emission technologies: The reality<\/span><\/h4>\n

          Negative emission\u00a0technologies\u00a0(NETs) like Direct\u00a0Air Capture (DAC) or\u00a0BECCS (bioenergy with\u00a0carbon capture\u00a0and storage) are\u00a0often pitched\u00a0as an emergency\u00a0plan. But the\u00a0raw numbers are\u00a0telling:<\/span><\/p>\n

          According to\u00a0IPCC estimates, about 10 billion\u00a0tons of CO\u2082 would\u00a0have to be removed\u00a0from the atmosphere\u00a0annually by\u00a02050 to reach\u00a0the 1.5\u00b0C target\u00a0with technical\u00a0help.<\/p>\n

          In reality, all existing\u00a0DAC facilities\u00a0worldwide can\u00a0currently remove\u00a0only about 0.01 million\u00a0tons of CO\u2082 per\u00a0year\u2014that\u2019s just\u00a00.0001 percent\u00a0of the needed\u00a0annual amount.<\/p>\n

          Even with annual\u00a0doubling rates, it would take\u00a0decades for NETs to play any\u00a0relevant role\u2014if they ever\u00a0can at the necessary\u00a0scale affordably and ecologically.<\/p>\n

          The crucial message:<\/b><\/span>
          \n<\/span><\/h4>\n

          The only realistic, quickly effective, and affordable\u00a0option is natural\u00a0carbon sinks. NATURE is the\u00a0key:<\/span><\/p>\n

            \n
          • Massive\u00a0reforestation<\/li>\n
          • \n

            Protection\u00a0and expansion\u00a0of peatlands and\u00a0wetlands<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • Regeneration of soils<\/li>\n
          • Intact oceans\u00a0as carbon reservoirs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Technology cannot\u00a0compensate for\u00a0the loss of nature. Hoping for technical\u00a0solutions wastes\u00a0valuable time.<\/p>\n

            The Call: Become a Guardian\u00a0of the Earth<\/span><\/h4>\n

            The scientific\u00a0findings are\u00a0clearer than\u00a0ever: We have\u00a0only about three\u00a0years left for\u00a0the 1.5\u00b0C target. But instead\u00a0of resigning, we\u00a0must act.<\/span><\/p>\n

            Francesco del\u00a0Orbe\u2019s message\u00a0to humanity:
            \n\u201cIf you\u00a0really want to\u00a0be sure something\u00a0gets done, then\u00a0just do it yourself!\u201d<\/p>\n

            The path\u00a0to a positive\u00a0Earthprint:<\/b><\/p>\n

              \n
            1. Become\u00a0climate-positive: Bind\u00a0more CO\u2082 than\u00a0you cause<\/li>\n
            2. Rapid\u00a0CO\u2082 binding through\u00a0reforestation, restoration, and protecting\u00a0nature<\/li>\n
            3. Actively cool the\u00a0planet\u2014not just\u00a0offset emissions\u00a0but actively\u00a0strengthen nature<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              You are not\u00a0solely to blame – 52 percent of\u00a0emissions come\u00a0from state-owned companies, and just 36 companies\u00a0cause more than\u00a0half of all fossil\u00a0emissions. But\u00a0you can be part\u00a0of the solution.<\/p>\n

              Conclusion: The\u00a0decisive years\u00a0are now<\/span><\/h4>\n

              Professor Fischedick\u2019s warning\u00a0from 2020 – \u201cWe\u2019re almost\u00a0at midnight\u201d – was prophetic. In 2025, we\u00a0are at the absolute\u00a0point of no return\u00a0for the 1.5\u00b0C target.<\/span><\/p>\n

              But Costa Rica\u00a0shows: A positive\u00a0Earthprint is\u00a0possible. Positive\u00a0tipping points\u00a0in renewables and\u00a0electric mobility\u00a0prove: Exponential change\u00a0is already happening.<\/p>\n

              The time for\u00a0waiting is over. Now it\u2019s about\u00a0becoming a guardian\u00a0of the Earth\u00a0and leaving a\u00a0positive Earthprint. Because: \u201cWe are the\u00a0world!\u201d – and only\u00a0together can\u00a0we save our planet.<\/span><\/p>\n

              Every tenth\u00a0of a degree less\u00a0warming, every\u00a0ton of CO\u2082 bound, every positive\u00a0Earthprint counts. Transformation\u00a0is possible – it must\u00a0simply start\u00a0now.<\/p>\n

              We are\u00a0the world! It\u2019s now up to us – to help nature\u00a0save us and our\u00a0home, because\u00a0we can\u2019t do it\u00a0alone anymore.<\/strong><\/p>\n

               <\/p>\n

              Author: Francesco\u00a0del Orbe\u00a0<\/span>\"\ud83c\udf0d\"<\/p>\n

               <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              – How\u00a0much time do\u00a0we have left? According to\u00a0the latest scientific\u00a0findings from\u00a02025, humanity\u00a0now faces an\u00a0even more critical\u00a0time window than\u00a0predicted in\u00a02020. The remaining\u00a0CO\u2082 budget for\u00a0the 1.5\u00b0C target\u00a0is only about\u00a0130 billion tons\u00a0of CO\u2082 and, at\u00a0current emission\u00a0rates, could\u00a0be exhausted\u00a0in roughly three\u00a0years. The dramatic\u00a0worsening since\u00a02020 While the\u00a0original 2020 blog\u00a0post already\u00a0warned about\u00a0time running\u00a0out, the situation\u00a0has drastically\u00a0deteriorated.\u00a02024 was the first\u00a0year when the\u00a0global…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":23903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[185,603],"tags":[261,253,254,263,307,267,260,255,429,264,265,252,250,259,262,268,308,207,266],"class_list":["post-23902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-and-environment","category-water","tag-biodiversity","tag-carbonneutral","tag-climate-action","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-farm","tag-climate-protection","tag-co2-binding","tag-earth-guardian","tag-earthprint","tag-ecosystem","tag-farming","tag-francesco-del-orbe","tag-fresopolis","tag-healthy-soil","tag-microclimate","tag-planting","tag-regenerative-agricultura","tag-sustainability","tag-sustainable"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTime Pressure\u00a0in the Climate\u00a0Crisis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Professor Fischedick\u2019s warning\u00a0from 2020 - \u201cWe\u2019re almost\u00a0at midnight\u201d - was prophetic. 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